Experts are more likely to be correct with respect to their domain than non-experts are and also are most likely to be wrong when non-experts are right. It's basically the intro to Bayes law medical test problem.
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Except here the doctor is a social process and the test is an epistemological one. Same caveats apply though. If you get to the point where the test is being conducted, you've already done some conditioning...
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And if the test keeps turning up +'s that don't match the expected constellation of observables, you may be in a different regime then the one you thought you generalized from, mis-matching on downstream symptoms instead of causes.
8:20 AM - 5 Apr 2020
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