1/ Here is my subjective path and associated inferences: January: Tech people in particular seem to be panicking about some virus. Epidemiologists are putting large confidence bounds around the risk. I buy masks for my parents.https://twitter.com/generativist/status/1242108174653485056 …
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4/ Late February: Culture war belief system balancing producing weird effects. Almost dizzying. The more-left did error-correction and started to allocate way more attention on the danger than on racism. In response, the right started mixing in "liberal hoax" elements.
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5/ Most of March: Biological reality asserts itself. Everyone in my feed with any semblance of a commitment to truth discovery is loud and serious. Exception being people in finance as they watch their risk dashboards go red everywhere and emphasize a different cost.
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6/ Now: Socio-political turning point. Will severe measures hold, socially? Will politically-constrained interventions be sufficient? Will bad orange man toss out risk assessments and models because Samantha5353636363 tweeted "it's all TDS" as he takes a morning dump?
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7/ Who failed? Pretty much everyone you wouldn't want to fail.
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8/ Media failed by being spread massively thin, in relying on a script that's been chronically salient for the past 4 years but was inappropriate in this context, and because of their long-standing business model issues. This isn't a new problem.
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9/ The CDC failed in part due to some mixture of sclerosis and the GOP (and Trump admin, in particular) long-standing, deliberately-injected organizational dysfunction as a means of capacity reduction. Put a Challenger Disaster inquiry reboot on the docket.
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9/ The executive branch failed because the person currently at the top of that hierarchy has the capacity of a toddler who missed nap time. But hey, we got tax cuts and deregulation, right?
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11/ Tech. You can argue that their signal detection was just an information environment effect (I think it was) or that the narratives they're selling in response are fictions (I think they are) but they've been allocating attention and resources to it, robustly, since the start.
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12/ Dr. Fauci and Cuomo, maybe? I can't tell if it's because they're both rising exceedingly well to the challenge or that there's just a stunning absence of any real leadership. But both seem to be becoming gravity wells for trust.
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