2/ Survivorship bias is real but often over-stated. The expressions of successful entrepreneurs are a function of what they perceive; and their perceptual filters are tuned to the task of entrepreneurship.
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3/ But perceptual emulation isn't really subject to conscious deliberation or control. You really can't fake it. Either integrate it into your beliefs, or don't.
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4/ It's frustrating to me because so many successful entrepreneurs have really bad ideas about things they have no experience with arrogantly and mistakenly translated to other contexts. Ideas that I *don't* want to adopt.
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5/ If I were to deeply think about and integrate what, say,
@paulg has to say about entrepreneurship, it *would* increase my probability of success. Even if he's wrong, causally! Say what you want about him, but that's the world he's lived in, successfully.Show this thread -
6/ But, if try to partition his good parts from the bad, I'm not going to end up with the same perceptual filters. And, I'll implicitly prioritize different things. And since I am *not* a successful entrepreneur, the difference lowers my relative probability of success!
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7/ It feels like trying to decide what the appropriate distance to swim away from the shore is. And it's exhausting.
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I think
@chaosprime or@eigenrobot or@sonyasupposedly had a tweet sorta about this (i.e. adopting habits of people whose habits are aligned with what you want) but I can't find it.Show this thread
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This feels like an alternative application of Pascal's conclusion to his wager: "endeavor to believe" (to see differently) but instead of risking nothing, you risk undermining the ability to access other epistemic frames, value systems, and ways of being a not-asshole.
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The risk and punchline is in fables all through history. https://twitter.com/Aelkus/status/1203000465367195652 …
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