1/ The systemic effects of polity-scale interventions — which interact with impossibly tangled causal webs that we don’t even have observational data for — can take generations to realize. And, between them and now, there were lots of other such policy changes. It’s complex.
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This is why I take a doggedly Bayesian view of things, retaining a hefty wait for likelihood of what-we-don't-know. Especially for things like risk of rare or unanticipated events in new but widespread techl
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