I’m extremely confident the Great Filter still lies in our future and almost as confident that it won’t be <social media /> but damn would that be a species-level cringe.
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Replying to @RealtimeAI
Unless the Dark Forest explanation is right, I don’t think we’ve seen something sufficient to explain the absence of observed life. But unless you’re an astrobiologist or something (and I’m not) it’s all a bit hand wavy.
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Replying to @generativist @RealtimeAI
So it’s mostly faux confidence by plausibility proxy, which historically doesn’t work well in that domain.
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Replying to @generativist
So I love hand-waving based on intuition. And I don’t think that studying tremendously myopic mathematical models gives one any more insight here. I also think Fermi’s paradox is a huge and fascinating mystery. But the Great Filter isn’t super compelling to me.
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Replying to @RealtimeAI @generativist
Have you read Deutsch’s Beginning of Infinity?
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