I’m extremely confident the Great Filter still lies in our future and almost as confident that it won’t be <social media /> but damn would that be a species-level cringe.
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So it’s mostly faux confidence by plausibility proxy, which historically doesn’t work well in that domain.
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So I love hand-waving based on intuition. And I don’t think that studying tremendously myopic mathematical models gives one any more insight here. I also think Fermi’s paradox is a huge and fascinating mystery. But the Great Filter isn’t super compelling to me.
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