Hmm. Why so confident?
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Unless the Dark Forest explanation is right, I don’t think we’ve seen something sufficient to explain the absence of observed life. But unless you’re an astrobiologist or something (and I’m not) it’s all a bit hand wavy.
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What if the Great Filter is a multi realisable phenomenon which in all its instantiations can be seen as excessive or explosive growth without the appropriate corresponding cybernetic or self regulatory powers so any ecosystem with scaffolding complexity will just self implode.
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That one I think is plausible
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mitochondria and chloroplasts seem at least slightly plausible
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how confident? as in: do you consider a Moon similar to our own as a prerequisite? i do, and that’s gonna be a helluva filter close enough to a binary star collapse for abundant gold and fissionables? that sort of thing
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