Polling has grown less reliable. Landline issues, response conditioning, etc. But, online polls are wildly manipulatable. If you're a news organization sharing the results of those that seem especially incongruent with others, you're at best haplessly engaged in misinformation.https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1144333800626954240 …
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Replying to @generativist
Is it really true that traditional polling, especially when weighted by a trained statistician, is getting less reliable? I seem to recall 538 getting the midterms more or less on the money.
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Replying to @berge314
The weighting and care part is becoming more important because of things like the phone response rate which is at something like 5% now. Lots of polling is moving online because of that, but that has a host of other problems. But I should have said: "its getting much harder."
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Replying to @generativist
It's also true that polling is completely manipulable on the design end, which is also why individual polls should probably not be reported by news agencies. But since news agencies are commissioning the polls...
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Replying to @berge314
Yea. Some of the questions, my gods...
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Replying to @generativist
Also the assumptions that go into weighting, especially the partisan makeup of the electorate.
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...and the degree to which polling *creates* politics now.
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