H1: Trumpism is the opportunistic infection of a decadent host. Wealth has too much wealth; the political system is fully-captured; populism is a symptom.
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I don't think h1 h2 and h3 are necessarily disconnected. I do think the two former feed the latter however. We tried to treat the tea party as an extension of the norm for too long because the politicians followed some of The Rules

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But it whipped up populist sentiment whole enforcing pseudo populist policy that fed the wealthy. It also mastered the social media game and pushed divisiveness while avoiding blame for said division. Trump didn't even really take that a full step further
End of conversation
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I think Trumpism is a symptom of a larger thing going on in public consciousness. We have been slowly building systems that reward increasingly extreme & rapid responses. It at least feels as if people are being pushed/led toward the extremes.
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I think somewhere between H2 and H3. I voted for H3 though
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H4 has 6+SD probability whatever one may hope
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The state of the poll confuses me. Makes me think I misread the emphasis on "hope" or everyone else missed it. I don't *think* H4 is more probable, but I sure *hope* so.
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Imagine trying to write this history of this time period. It is boring. And boring is good. Political malcontents are mostly horrified that we still have some 1990s cultural sensibilities. Trump is a distraction *between* disasters.
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Hard to parse "hope" about such different realities.
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