(Mentions @kevinbaker)
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So it's the Monte Hall problem when you use Monte Carlo methods to solve the Monty Hall problem?! Also, thanks for calling out the enraging assumption that I want a
and not a
!pic.twitter.com/WNfVpnGJnU -
Look how many utils that would give you!
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Writing a simulation and plotting helps. What helped more was expanding the scenario to more doors. 100 doors, open 98 doors after selection. Odds of picking the right one with the first guess? Bad. Odds on next guess? Much better.
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Yea, for me, too. And
@yudapearl talked about a few related ways of making it more intuitive in his#BookOfWhy.
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I’m just thinking I’d be equally happy with a pet goat.


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Fantastic piece. Thanks for sharing.
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