Let me fire up Jupyter to make it pseudo-formal...
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Replying to @generativist @Aelkus
Er, actually, I'll save that for later, since I'm re-projecting my dissertation to a new medium which will do a better job anyway. Informally...
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Replying to @generativist @Aelkus
Let's say there is a context with associated beliefs. You express an opinion on one of the associated beliefs. It matches mine, constrained to that belief. But, I select a different associated belief. My expression matches yours, had you been constrained to that belief.
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Replying to @generativist @Aelkus
But, which ones you select convey information about the relationships *between* beliefs, which is what we really care more about. It's how we navigate implications. But, it's hard to share those things, so we look for cues in selection.
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Replying to @generativist @Aelkus
So, when people think, "oh those two people are talking past each other, but they really agree," they're making a mistake. They agree over an artificial, constrained projection; but their mental models disagree, as evidenced by expressive propensities.
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Replying to @generativist @Aelkus
It's also the place where so much fuckery hides because it's the hardest to quantify easily. E.g. GSS/ANES asks "What's your opinion on [X]?" it doesn't observe what beliefs you express and sample from in your life. It measures the wrong thing.
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Replying to @Aelkus
Kinda? Mostly, it's an overly-sophisticated way of saying something like, "yea, opinions on abortion aren't actually about abortion." We don't actually constrain our expressions or evaluations to a narrow context.
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Replying to @generativist @Aelkus
So does this mean our expressed opinions are proxies for our mental models and that even if they align with expressed opinions of others that doesn’t necessarily mean the mental models align?
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Replying to @_a_n_u_s_h_a @Aelkus
I believe it does, yes. Except that I also believe that aligned expressions tend to induce contagious alignments, just in heterogeneous ways. E.g. if we agree, I may just perceive an identity we share and strengthen my belief in that.
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So our varied mental models encapsulate a lot (although I think the identity part is relatively important) and they are extremely hard to decompose! (I'm working on a graphical story to convey this as we speak. Stay tuned in a few weeks!)
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