For me, it's: Trump continues to express and campaign on his whole "everyone but [MAGA] is the Enemy of the People" tyrannical rhetoric (100% probability); he wins 2020 (near a coin-flip); then, the economic downturn hits before 2024 (a very high probability).
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Yea, I'm a big fan of those. My final experiment for my ABM was a mass synchronization event for rendering a belief context salient (and compelling social exchange in that context).
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Semi-related but just if you didn't see this, I really want to check this out later because it's really interesting in terms of the resiliency of social capital and persistent environmental structures to shocks,https://twitter.com/leah_boustan/status/1112694800782970885 …
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Oh I meant the conjugation but yes. We've been *incredibly* lucky that no acute crisis requiring leadership has hit yet. I mean, it's all terrible, but not calamitously fracturing — still slack (even social) like you said. That trend will end. Via economic crisis, I think, too.
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He loses in 2020 but refuses to leave.
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