TFW you have tremendous respect for politicial scientists and politicial science — when you’re impressed by how much the field knows and discovers — but simultaneously think everyone, including yourself, is tragically confused because the system is too large to pin down.
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When did the need for it to become predictive become so fervent? I don't remember this. Timelines were longer and causation had much less agency back in my day. Get off my lawn, you rascals.

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I want to blame Milton Friedman.
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Seems to me that analytical, post-facto social science is pretty interesting; but, prescriptive/predictive social science is dangerously inaccurate. Exactly as you say, the system is too large and complex for any particular model to capture enough to enable real predictiveness.
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Yea. Lack of system-scale experiments is so painful! (Hence everyone in my feed growing increasingly in love with casual analysis.)
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