1/ Admittedly, I'm biased by my dissertation, but wrt Russia's mis/disinformation campaign, I am simultaneously, - Skeptical that the effect sizes can be identified. and, - Confident that the effect exists. https://twitter.com/smartz0/status/1075058342039572480 …
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2/ Social media compels fast judgments that end up integrating information over: - Identity (through stereotypes), and; - Contextualized beliefs (emitted as opinions). These aren't independent processes. - Stereotypes contaminate beliefs; - Beliefs contaminate stereotypes.
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3/ Memes in general -- and dis/misinformation campaigns in particular -- are very good at constraining judgment to almost pure identity. But, the subsequent belief system update still integrates over both concerns!
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4/ As the system evolves, stereotype reliability increases at the expense of contextualized beliefs. Stereotypes aren't merely "more salient" -- the integration step annihilates the information encoded by the belief system.
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5/ Russian propaganda absolutely did not cause 2016. At most it accelerated it's realization -- 2016 instead of 2020 or something. It was an opportunistic infection taking advantage of an already sick and dying host.
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6/ But because it was highly successful or because of media amplification, it became highly visible. And success invites imitation. The reaction is self-sustaining now. It's profitable (in many senses of the word).
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7/ Again, I'm not saying "they did it, it was them!" The vulnerability long predated them and 2016. And, I believe the specific attack received and receives too much attention. But, the driving mechanisms -- and implicitly, possible defenses -- continue to be underappreciated.
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