My friend @ChrisHeery's tweet struck a chord a while back. Most intros to Bayesian stats use similar examples which implicitly assume doctors order tests using uninformative priors and no subjective information.
Maybe that's bad pedagogy?
...I've never been tested for Ebola.https://twitter.com/ChrisHeery/status/1048963583516631040 …
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Replying to @generativist
Yes, it belittles the whole principle of only ordering tests when probability of the disease entity is high.
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Replying to @ChrisHeery
Yea, and considering I am, 1) Statistically well-trained; and, 2) Unfortunately familiar with medical testing, it's really weird that I never read any of the articles like the one you quoted and thought, "um, no, you're ignoring a pretty import condition."
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Replying to @generativist
Hey man, that’s my job! I take offense to someone ignoring such an important aspect of medical decision making. It’s as though the term differential diagnosis has never entered the author’s mind.
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And glad it is :) When I get back to my place, I wanna look through some of my stats books and see which use the flawed example. You could argue it's a step -- like "you can't take the square root of a negative number" -- but you could also just use a better example.
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