Wait, there are computational social science texts?
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Yes! In fact, they’re proliferating! Here’s one from my committee chair: https://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Computational-Social-Science-Applications/dp/1447156609 …
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It is hard to believe, Monty Hall hardly deserves the word paradox. Especially if you consider one million doors as opposed to three.
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I like the restructuring
@pwang just gave. It (minimally) annihilates the illusion.https://twitter.com/pwang/status/1038771776493428741?s=21 … - 4 more replies
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The thing that finally cinched it for me was the fact that Monte will *always* pick a door without the car, which inputs new information and makes the second guess non-independent. I'm pretty sure default intuition is to assume he might pick the door with the car.
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Yea. In Pearl’s The Book Of Why, he talks about how part of the illusion is that we’re focused on our choice so we fail to see Monte’s conditioning. I kinda liked that way of understanding it.
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I don't have it internalized anymore, but I distinctly remember understanding and accepting it when I just wrote all the possibilities out in a table. It's only three doors and two steps, the variations aren't that many.
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Yea. I’m reading Judea Pearls Book of Why and he has a chapter using it for pedagogical reasons. I always relied upon the table, too. But the collider approach feels...quicker given practice.pic.twitter.com/sMDlGkewe1
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My handle is generativist so you won’t get an argument from me!
End of conversation
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