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gelliottmorris's profile
G. Elliott Morris
G. Elliott Morris
G. Elliott Morris
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@gelliottmorris

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G. Elliott MorrisVerified account

@gelliottmorris

Data journalist + (US) politics writer @TheEconomist. My book on polls & democracy forthcoming @wwnorton 2022. My blog/newsletter: http://gelliottmorris.substack.com 

Washington, DC/NoVA
gelliottmorris.com
Joined July 2009

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    G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Aug 22

    Not sure of the precise probability, but I think “Rs win Congress 2022, Ds don’t get unified control back again until 2036” is very high, maybe even > 0.5, and Dems are going to regret not blowing up the filibuster, passing redistricting reform & adding states for a looong time

    11:57 AM - 22 Aug 2021
    • 2,389 Retweets
    • 12,314 Likes
    • . Damon Ferrara Jenny Adams Tracey Gehring 💉💉😷 Erin Brown 🌵 Bo Palinic Marigold Jerome Dawson use me
    593 replies 2,389 retweets 12,314 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Aug 22

        It is obviously a fool’s errand to predict how demographic correlates of voting will change over 15 years, so I’m not trying to. The point is that the probability here is alarmingly high (esp given D pop vote advantage) — and higher than some Dems on Cap Hill seem to acknowledge

        9 replies 105 retweets 1,224 likes
        Show this thread
      3. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Aug 22

        G. Elliott Morris Retweeted

        Rs win 2028, Ds win back 2036? Move the timetable up 4 years if you think Biden loses in 2024 (which is completely plausible) or if Rs get single-cycled. (The precise year is unimportant, it’s the duration thats key here.) https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1429522491261718528 …

        G. Elliott Morris added,

        This Tweet is unavailable.
        21 replies 47 retweets 576 likes
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      4. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Aug 22

        G. Elliott Morris Retweeted (((David Shor)))

        Because of structural advantages for voters that tend to align with Republicans, Democrats are already starting behind in national — and it’s probably only going to get harder for them if educational polarization keeps risinghttps://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1429523461916045318 …

        G. Elliott Morris added,

        (((David Shor)))Verified account @davidshor
        Even abstracting away from the realities of the current situation that make things much bleaker (literally unprecedented large structural biases in favor of Republicans in the house, senate, and electoral college), Democrats have averaged ~1 trifecta every 14 years since Carter. https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1429518079952924676 … pic.twitter.com/2cp8pBt2aF
        16 replies 89 retweets 542 likes
        Show this thread
      5. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Aug 22

        G. Elliott Morris Retweeted Charlotte Hill

        Definitely possiblehttps://twitter.com/hill_charlotte/status/1429532549013934083 …

        G. Elliott Morris added,

        Charlotte HillVerified account @hill_charlotte
        Replying to @gelliottmorris
        2036 is generous. It’s possible Ds never get it back.
        40 replies 57 retweets 558 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. harry cock roach hope account  🙏‏ @zrizzletheman Aug 22
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        why specifically 2036

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. GumbyPI 🌐‏ @GumbyPI Aug 22
        Replying to @zrizzletheman @gelliottmorris

        probably assumes back to 8 years of switches in WH

        2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Jimmy Madison‏ @Federalist_10 Aug 22
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        What a great advertisement for our desperately needed national political divorce.

        4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. John Brown Stan Account‏ @thejb_stan Aug 22
        Replying to @Federalist_10 @gelliottmorris

        Divorce? Absolutely not. We will crush them if needed, but they're not getting away.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Dan B.‏ @freezed00 Aug 22
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        As in: forever

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. John Brown Stan Account‏ @thejb_stan Aug 22
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        But muh normz!!

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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