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Sept 22: The model didn't change enough to really say anything new today, so here's a thread about potential polling error instead:https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1308501606300778498 …
Sept 23: After our POTUS model picked up a Trump +4 ABC/WaPo poll in Florida today, I was expecting it to move a few points in aggregate. But good polls for Biden in the Midwest + PA counteracted the shift, so the overall pic today (yet again!) is stable.https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
Sept 24: Today was another day of tradeoffs for Biden. A couple of bad (relatively speaking) polls in Texas shrunk his expected electoral vote tally by 4 votes, but good data in the Midwest (MI, WI and — yes — OH) kept his chance of hitting 270 steady.https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
Sept 25: Nothing important to note tonight. Read this article on racial disparities in absentee ballot rejections insteadhttps://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/24/in-america-your-absentee-ballot-is-more-likely-to-be-counted-if-youre-white …
Sept 28: The big news today was the Biden +9 NYT poll out of PA, which our model rates as by far the likeliest tipping-point state. The avg there didn't budged much but Trump staying within the MOE is probably the biggest thing keeping him afloat in the EChttps://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
I'll be waiting up for the new ABC/WaPo poll at midnight, though it won't make it into the model until the morning
Sept 29: On the night of the first presidential debate, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 8 points nationally & in states worth 334 electoral votes. There is time for the race to change but tonight will be a crucial test for the viability of Trump’s campaignhttps://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
Sept 30: A series of good polls for Biden pushed his chance of winning up to 7-in-8 today. That's no certain thing, but reflects the Democratic candidate's strength in the Midwest. Good polls in GA and IA have also nudged up his median electoral vote tallyhttps://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
Oct 1: Our model has detected quite a large shift toward Biden over the last few days. Our projected median electoral college tally for Trump is under 200 for the first time since August. Could it be the start of a post-RBG shift in the state of the race? https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …pic.twitter.com/5mE9Q83qG2
A final model update today (Oct 1) has Biden on the cusp of being favored in GA and OH, and gaining ground in pretty much all the other swing states (thanks to a favorable national trend). We now have Biden favored in 12 of the 15 likeliest tipping-point states (tied in 2 more).pic.twitter.com/Igsoz2z1iU
32 days is a long way to go, but this is a notable shift toward Biden (mirrored by other models)
Oct 2: A lot has changed in the past 24 hours. Polls should react to Trump testing positive for covid-19 in about a week. Until then, we'll have a pretty incomplete picture on the state of the race—which, for now, is still rather pro-Biden.https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
Oct 5: Biden hit a new high in our forecast today, as Arizona drifted into the "likely Biden" category and Ohio bounced from Trump's side of 50-50 to Biden'shttps://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
Oct 6: More of the same today. Our model didn't react at all to the CNN poll—so sharp a trend has not been matched by other polls, which show closer to a 1pt bounce over the last week—and we got polls that were only slightly bluer than expected in PA & AZ.https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
Yes, and like 20 others that suggest he's up by 8 or 9https://twitter.com/MichiganKiran/status/1313656646955134978?s=20 …
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