Our election model today versus at this point in 2016: National polling average: Biden +10 (Clinton +4) MN: +11 (+6) MI: +9 (+7) PA: +8 (+2) WI: +7 (+7) NH: +7 (+2) FL: +6 (+0) NC: +3 (-2) AZ: +3 (-5) OH: +2 (+1) GA: +1 (-5) IA: -0 (+2) TX: -2 (-12)https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …
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2016 was a good reminder for pundits and analysts alike that data aren't gospel and unlikely things can happen, but Trump's deficit in 2020 is much bigger than his deficit last time.
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There’s an unmistakable difference between today’s data and 2016. Hillary was always just treading water.
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Yeah gotta keep mentioning this isn’t 2016.
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Still....vote. Make sure your friends and family register and they vote on 11/3. This country will not make past another 4 years of the Trump experiment.
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Should I take Biden at 3-5 odds?
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It still bothers me on a visceral level that Biden could win the popular vote by millions and still lose the electoral college vote. Like, than 7% electoral college to popular vote gap is terrifying.
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I know what you are saying, and I can’t stand that trump won, but discrepancy between number of seats/states won and % of vote is normal. In Ireland SG got most votes, but not enough seats so not in government. In Canada, % of seats of Trudeau way higher than % I’d vote.
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A 77 year old man has a 1.45% chance of dying in the next four months (source: 2014 SSA Period Life Table) so presumably Biden's probability of winning the popular vote currently has a theoretical cap of 98.55%.
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