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gelliottmorris's profile
G. Elliott Morris
G. Elliott Morris
G. Elliott Morris
Verified account
@gelliottmorris

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G. Elliott MorrisVerified account

@gelliottmorris

Data journalist + (US) politics writer @TheEconomist. My book on polls & democracy forthcoming @wwnorton 2022. My blog/newsletter: http://gelliottmorris.substack.com 

Washington, DC/NoVA
gelliottmorris.com
Joined July 2009

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    1. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 16 Jul 2020

      Our election model today versus at this point in 2016: National polling average: Biden +10 (Clinton +4) MN: +11 (+6) MI: +9 (+7) PA: +8 (+2) WI: +7 (+7) NH: +7 (+2) FL: +6 (+0) NC: +3 (-2) AZ: +3 (-5) OH: +2 (+1) GA: +1 (-5) IA: -0 (+2) TX: -2 (-12)https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president …

      27 replies 81 retweets 233 likes
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      G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 16 Jul 2020

      Projected electoral college outcome on election day: Biden 356 (Clinton 296) Probability of winning the electoral college: 92% Biden (66% Clinton) Probability of winning the popular vote: 99% Biden (78% Clinton)

      7:52 AM - 16 Jul 2020
      • 39 Retweets
      • 177 Likes
      • Nikolaj🍦🧦 Felipe Afanador Stephen Berry Michael Patton Paulie 🌱 Duke 'Zesty Quip Employer' Zero Chip_Trenckmann 0 Coffee Monstress
      13 replies 39 retweets 177 likes
        1. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 16 Jul 2020

          2016 was a good reminder for pundits and analysts alike that data aren't gospel and unlikely things can happen, but Trump's deficit in 2020 is much bigger than his deficit last time.

          13 replies 30 retweets 186 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Dan‏ @Danartman 16 Jul 2020
          Replying to @gelliottmorris

          There’s an unmistakable difference between today’s data and 2016. Hillary was always just treading water.

          3 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. SpaceStuff&Thangs‏ @AlexBalderas118 16 Jul 2020
          Replying to @gelliottmorris

          Yeah gotta keep mentioning this isn’t 2016.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. klaatu barada nikto  🤖 👾  🌊  🌊‏ @Riquelmis 16 Jul 2020
          Replying to @AlexBalderas118 @gelliottmorris

          Still....vote. Make sure your friends and family register and they vote on 11/3. This country will not make past another 4 years of the Trump experiment.

          2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Andy Grossman‏ @CtAndyG 16 Jul 2020
          Replying to @gelliottmorris

          Should I take Biden at 3-5 odds?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Biden/Harris Stan  💛 ⚖️ 🍩 🔯  🍩 🍩 🍩‏ @BlueWave2020NY 18 Jul 2020
          Replying to @CtAndyG @gelliottmorris

          Yes

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. jdtechie‏ @jdtechie 16 Jul 2020
          Replying to @gelliottmorris

          It still bothers me on a visceral level that Biden could win the popular vote by millions and still lose the electoral college vote. Like, than 7% electoral college to popular vote gap is terrifying.

          1 reply 2 retweets 30 likes
        3. John Curry‏ @irishcurry 16 Jul 2020
          Replying to @jdtechie @gelliottmorris

          I know what you are saying, and I can’t stand that trump won, but discrepancy between number of seats/states won and % of vote is normal. In Ireland SG got most votes, but not enough seats so not in government. In Canada, % of seats of Trudeau way higher than % I’d vote.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Tom Hadfield‏ @tomhadfield 18 Jul 2020
          Replying to @gelliottmorris

          A 77 year old man has a 1.45% chance of dying in the next four months (source: 2014 SSA Period Life Table) so presumably Biden's probability of winning the popular vote currently has a theoretical cap of 98.55%.

          4 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
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