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gelliottmorris's profile
G. Elliott Morris
G. Elliott Morris
G. Elliott Morris
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@gelliottmorris

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G. Elliott MorrisVerified account

@gelliottmorris

Data journalist @TheEconomist. Writing a book about polls and democracy @wwnorton (out fall 2021). My personal blog/newsletter: http://thecrosstab.substack.com 

Washington, DC
gelliottmorris.com
Joined July 2009

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    G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 28 Feb 2019

    Poll of the 2020 race in Texas: Trump 47 - O'Rourke 46 Trump 47 - Biden 46 Trump 47 - Sanders 45 Trump 46 - Castro 41 Trump 48 - Harris 41 Trump 48 - Warren 41 The differences between the margins aren't statistically significant. Texas is competitive. https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2602 …pic.twitter.com/jpWqr1TVoM

    6:23 AM - 28 Feb 2019
    • 83 Retweets
    • 221 Likes
    • luke 🙇 abolish police & prison Alex Singer Rik Scarce Bryan Jones James C. Morrison . Agustin Wong End police violence Kyle DeBeer
    37 replies 83 retweets 221 likes
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @abhiprofen

        yes

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Mike Greenfield‏ @mike_greenfield 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        The margin differences almost certainly are statistically significant, because the correlation in vote between (Trump vs. X) and (Trump vs. Y) are really, really high. It's a different calculation than a case where you're comparing two independent questions.

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      3. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @mike_greenfield

        Ideally, I would have microdata but alas do not -- how might you calculate?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. (((Herid Fel)))‏ @heridfan 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        is this among all adults or among registered voters?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @heridfan

        RV

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Sir Humphrey‏ @bdquinn 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        I can see the name recognition issues from my house.

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
      3. Tom Atkins‏ @ATomEAtkins 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @bdquinn @gelliottmorris

        Sure - but Trump doesn't do appreciably better against lesser know candidates (the Ds do worse), and ideological opposites Bernie and Biden do basically the same. In essence - it will ****all come down to turnout*** :)

        3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Canceling debates very strongly‏ @JimAdamsGeo 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        pic.twitter.com/1As92Obhn9

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Brian Gmerick‏ @Beegeebers 28 Feb 2019
        Replying to @gelliottmorris

        Statewide, Texas has a majority/minority population, and it is that component of the population that will continue to age into voters in ever larger numbers every month between now and November 2020. Texas can be competitive in 2020.

        0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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