Gary Black

@garyblack00

Private investor - formerly CEO Aegon Asset Management US, Co-CIO Calamos, CIO Equities Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt, CEO/CIO Janus, Partner/Sr Analyst Bernstein

Chicago, IL
Vrijeme pridruživanja: kolovoz 2019.

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  1. prije 9 sati

    After ‘s masssive 112% YTD run - 38% in two days - it’s sensible for investors to take profits. That said, 24M shares remain short, and growth PMs who didn’t own TSLA are behind R1G bm by 60 bp after 1 mo! They will look for entry once sellers exit and heads back up.

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  2. prije 9 sati

    Lol...CNBC talking heads saying in a bear market. IT’S PROFIT TAKING GUYS! was up +112% YTD. If was a 10% weight in a ptf at YE, after yesterday it was a 22% weight!! The PM has to resize the position or be fired. Short positions work the same way in reverse.

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  3. prije 9 sati

    Reason and other winner-take-all multiples are so high: with 2% US share can take big % of other 98% of industry profits. Same way IPhone annexed Nokia/Blackberry/Motorola profits. down 10% today - no end in sight for EBIT decline, despite coming EV launches.

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  4. prije 13 sati

    The debate about whether should have an auto or tech multiple is INSANE. No one would argue should have a retail multiple. Theory says multiples are derived from DCFs driven by L/T growth rates. With Vols growing at 40% and EPS by 50%, $TSLA’s P/E should be at 60x+.

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  5. prije 15 sati

    bull case: 1) Moodys upgrades debt 2-3 notches; 2) S&P adds TSLA to S&P500; 3) Y sells 100K units in 2020; 4) Audi/BMW/Volvo/new EVs don’t sell; 5) New TSLA battery with 500-mile range; 6) Growth PMs career risk; 7) Massive ESG flows after stellar 2019; 8) 24M shares short

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  6. prije 15 sati

    What P/E should trade at? After yesterday, trades at 59x ‘21 EPS of $15 and is exp. to grow 2020-24 EPS at 46% CGR (1.3x PEG). AMZN (51x ‘21 P/E) and NFLX (44x ‘21 P/E) both trade at PEGs of 1.5x. At a 1.5x PEG, TSLA 2021 P/E would be 69x ~ $1,035 price.

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  7. 4. velj

    is just like IPhone and as disruptive innovations. has redefined what autos need to be - just as iPhone and did. Skeptics didn’t value or properly because each essentially became winner-take-all of industry profits. is next $1T stock.

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  8. 4. velj

    While ’s “short burn of the century” rages, shorts cling to belief that new EVs from Audi/BMW/Mercedes will crush , despite gas-guzzling images conveyed by the legacy brands wholly inconsistent with EVs. Reiterating my Y.E. PT of $1,000 and 2024 PT of $2,000.

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  9. 4. velj

    At $900/share, MC=180M x $900=$160B. If EV penetration goes from 2.5% to 20% globally, and share FALLS from 17% to 8.5%, vols still QUADRUPLE by 2024. Assuming 1.8M vol in 2024 @$54K ASP @ 25% GM ~$15B NI. Even at 24x P/E ~$360B market cap ~ $2,000/SHARE.

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  11. 4. velj

    CNBC commentators and bearish analysts really don’t get ‘s basic investment premise: Audi/BMW/Mercedes’ new EVs will not succeed because would-be EV buyers view OEM legacy brands as antiquated gas guzzling cars driven by aging baby boomers. ’s brand is uniquely EV.

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  12. 4. velj

    Hilarious that CNBC is rotating ticker with DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq at the bottom right of their TV broadcast.

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  13. 4. velj

    is just like IPhone and as disruptive innovations. has redefined what an automobile needs to be - just as iPhone and did. Skeptics didn’t value or properly because each essentially took over much of industry profits. is next $1T stock.

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  14. 4. velj
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  15. 4. velj

    This is the beginning of “short burn of the century.” shorts refused to do basic research on EV buying trends, OEM brand propositions, or review other disruptive innovations where winner took all. On 2024 vols of 1.8M~$15MM NI P/E of 24x ~$360B~$2,000/share

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  16. 4. velj

    surge is a combo of short covering and long only growth PMs afraid of career risk after underperforming in 2019 (32% beat their BMs) and not owning YTD. Most instit growth PMs are measured vs R1000 Growth, where is a 60bp weight and #1 YTD +84%

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  17. 4. velj

    ..far more than GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler combined. Like IPhone a decade ago, huge first mover advantage derived from superior technology and a consumer megatrend like climate change or mobility can lead to winner-take-all economics, a view investors have now embraced. p4

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  18. 4. velj

    ...gas powered combustion engines through TV & print ads and dealer promotions. Most problematic are legacy brands that conjure up images of gas guzzling vehicles that aging baby boomers drive. Yesterday, the market in all its efficiency realized that SHOULD be worth...p3

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  19. 4. velj

    ..from its huge satisfied base of customers to justify its $140B valuation. To argue the legacy OEMs will “just catch up” when they launch their own EVs now seems terribly naive, given battery ranges half of , and passive orgo cultures that devote their efforts to selling.p2

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  20. 4. velj

    Almost over night, investors have realized just how valuable Tesla’s first mover mover advantage is in EVs. Ever efficient, the market suddenly understood how extensive the lead has in battery tech, brand uniqueness, social media presence, and word of mouth advertising...p1

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