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@GarettJones

Making a continuing inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations.

Washington, DC
sup.org/books/extra/?i…
Joined July 2009
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Sep 22

    "After controlling for confounds including quality of ingredients, chef expertise, and restaurant ambience, we find that a meal at McDonald's offers nearly the same experience as a meal at any Michelin-starred restaurant." --Every kitchen-sink regression paper you've ever read.

    19 replies 286 retweets 968 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    20 hours ago

    Unbelievable how much stuff like this gets published with no mention of genetic confounds.

    Growing up in a house full of books is major boost to literacy and numeracy, study finds
    35 replies 33 retweets 255 likes
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  3. Retweeted
    16 hours ago

    In this episode I make an analogy between ’s Grievance Studies hoax papers and the fake resume studies showing racial discrimination in hiring. Forgot to credit , who came up with the analogy.

    EP: 13 - Blinded Me With Science Brainiac geneticist talks Grievance Studies and Academia with of and of
    1 retweet 8 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    Oct 15

    Everything you know about cross-country convergence is (now) wrong. In which , , and I take issue with a new JEL review that seems to ignore the last quarter-century of economic growth. 1/

    5 replies 144 retweets 237 likes
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  5. 21 hours ago

    That may be why the authors then turn to a microfoundational channel--definitely worth a look!--where democracy predicts stability & stability predicts growth. A useful ceteris paribus parable, but a reminder ceteris aren't paribus IRL. A noteworthy contrast with Jones/Olken.

    1 like
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  6. 21 hours ago

    Oh, and the paper in Table 2 finds a form of Barro's Democracy Laffer Curve: The coefficient on Polity is positive, but the interaction between Polity and income per capita is negative. And the effect sizes casually look like the net effect is negative for rich countries.

    1 reply 2 likes
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  7. 21 hours ago

    Suggestive evidence for my claim: The paper uses the aggregate Polity score, which to a non-trivial degree smuggles "good institutions" into the definition of democracy. In particular, Polity measures constraints on the executive even if the executive is democratically elected.

    2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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  8. 23 hours ago

    It uses a fancy one-zero dummy for democracy. You're either in or you're out, Ocean's 11 style. IRL, democracy is a matter of degree, something you can order, say, 10% Less of... 😉

    Replying to @GarettJones
    Opinion on the new Acemoglu et al. paper on democracy?
    2 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
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  9. 23 hours ago

    Any such benefits attributed to 'democracy' are likely due to the independent judiciary--and mercifully, the judiciary isn't terribly democratic at all.

    4 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
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  10. Retweeted
    Oct 14

    kind of ironic that this is the most successful application of the humanities to tech but no one will talk about it for fairly predictable reasons

    4 replies 106 retweets 225 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Oct 14

    2. For 25 years, the has honored the top war reporting. The town has a commemorative garden where every year, the name of every single reporter killed reporting war is added. Why would a tiny provincial town become associated with reporting war?

    2 replies 31 retweets 128 likes
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  12. Retweeted
    Oct 14

    The reason why social democrats are struggling so badly is that each part of its base is cheating. Working-class voters are flocking to right-wing populists. The liberal bourgeoisie feels better represented by cosmopolitan parties like the Greens.

    1 reply 51 retweets 111 likes
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  13. Retweeted
    Oct 14

    Bought this yesterday. Read half then, chatted after church with pals about it, then read 2nd half today. If you haven't bought & read it yet, what are you waiting for? Do it. Buy it. Buy it now.

    I wanted to read a short book about it, but the only ones I could find were from the 19th century, so I wrote one. Its only 99p
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    2 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
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  14. Oct 14

    I read the first edition, pre-Trump. Prophetic, wise, and now blurbed by the great :

    From the new chapter in the forthcoming new edition of ’s The Revolt of the Public.
    2 replies 7 retweets 21 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Oct 12

    Is this where I rage about George McClellan, the worst general in American history, despite this being only tangentially relevant? WHY YES IT IS

    38 replies 24 retweets 354 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Oct 14

    In case you missed it: my oped about the repressive turn in European counterterrorism

    6 replies 18 retweets 32 likes
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  17. Retweeted
    Oct 13

    Linda Gottfredson, an expert on occupational interests and intelligence, is the latest disinvited speaker. (She's also on a McCarthyite list of "extremists" by the Southern Poverty Law Ctr, once a respected civil rights org., now aggressively illiberal.)

    75 replies 426 retweets 1,170 likes
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  18. Retweeted
    Oct 13

    This piece on how “evidence-based policymaking” fails in practice is devastating in detail:

    1 reply 17 retweets 31 likes
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  19. Oct 13

    "One piece of evidence that [Paul Romer] at last understood growth deeply is that the first two sections of the 1990 paper are written very clearly, almost entirely in text and with the minimum required mathematics..." --The very wise Chad Jones

    New ideas about new ideas: Paul Romer, Nobel laureate
    3 retweets 9 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Oct 13
    Replying to

    Then you'd enjoy Hive Mind by very much as well. And it makes for a great answer to your question.

    1 retweet 4 likes
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  21. Oct 13

    I know one isn't supposed to literally 'believe' things that Paul Krugman says--it's bedtime stories all the way down--but CBO (2016) says: 'Households in the top 1 percent of the before-tax income distribution had an average tax rate of 34.0 percent.'

    Only the little people pay taxes
    4 replies 8 retweets 30 likes
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