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freshjiva's profile
Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर
Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर
Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर
@freshjiva

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

Chartered Financial Analyst. Fixed-gear cycling. Eastern spirituality. Veganism. Financial markets. Indian classical music. Don't take myself too seriously.

Washington, DC
Joined April 2010

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    Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर‏ @freshjiva 3 Jan 2020

    Quick update: $TSLA EV / EBITDA now sits at 19.5Xpic.twitter.com/O5S0N59TRP

    4:59 PM - 3 Jan 2020
    • 23 Retweets
    • 79 Likes
    • Dana M Mike burner Hernan Soulages 🤔📊 Yuge Big Viggo! Shiny Pidgey Mathiew MZ Alex Mussallem Never Snooze
    5 replies 23 retweets 79 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर‏ @freshjiva 3 Jan 2020

        This utilizes analyst consensus EBITDA estimates for 2020, which currently sits at $4.38 billion, a +5.6% upward revision over the past 3 months according to analysts polled by @ZATools:pic.twitter.com/Sv075ruyO0

        2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
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      3. Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर‏ @freshjiva 3 Jan 2020

        By way of comparison, $AMZN trades at 18.4X, a nominal difference.pic.twitter.com/7HsaWstATH

        1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर‏ @freshjiva 3 Jan 2020

        As we all know, valuation multiples are a function of growth, among other things such as return on capital, WACC, etc. $TSLA 4-year forward EBITDA growth (least squares) has been +52%pic.twitter.com/Myk7MPrwZo

        1 reply 3 retweets 16 likes
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      5. Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर‏ @freshjiva 3 Jan 2020

        ...versus $AMZN's 4-year forward EBITDA growth (least squares) of +42%pic.twitter.com/SYRFbSowwH

        1 reply 2 retweets 16 likes
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      6. Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर‏ @freshjiva 3 Jan 2020

        If one were to believe valuation multiples and growth rates have a linear relationship (not a great assumption, but a starting point), here are the two companies' growth-adjusted EV / EBITDA (somewhat like a PEG ratio): $TSLA: 0.375 $AMZN: 0.438

        1 reply 2 retweets 14 likes
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      7. Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर‏ @freshjiva 3 Jan 2020

        Given what we know about $TSLA's high correlation to EBITDA, this suggests to me the recent stock runup is simply correcting the previous disconnection we saw earlier in 2019. Until I see these ratios surpass $AMZN & cos with similar growth, I don't see evidence of overvaluation.

        0 replies 8 retweets 49 likes
        Show this thread
      8. End of conversation
      1. alejandro batiz‏ @alejandrobatiz6 3 Jan 2020
        Replying to @freshjiva

        It’s a decent comparison but it all comes down to tesla’s future growth.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. B.A.T.‏ @BATMongoose 3 Jan 2020
        Replying to @freshjiva

        Where are you getting this from? I have it at 25x. Also note that analysts have been way too high on Tesla profitability every single year for 10...

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. David Zhao‏ @davidzhao365 3 Jan 2020
        Replying to @freshjiva

        Great charts! I use PS ratio (revenue multiple) a lot to evaluate Tesla. Wondering what is your thoughts on that? What is a good/fair PS ratio for Tesla? Or for any company at a similar growth rate and margin. Can we compare it with Apple? Thanks!

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. David Zhao‏ @davidzhao365 3 Jan 2020
        Replying to @davidzhao365 @freshjiva

        This is the chart I usedhttps://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/price-sales …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies

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