Well Freddie, it is actually not what he said. He said that, in case he was wrong, that error was an error in the right direction, not that his pessimistic forecast is an error in itself (in the right direction or not).
Prof Neil Ferguson tells Politico: “I’m quite happy to be wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction.” But why is making overly pessimistic forecasts an error in the right direction? The fact that gov scientists think that way has enormous consequences.
-
-
-
To be clear, I am not a lockdown fan (quite the contrary), but what he actually meant was that he would be happy to be wrong (no dramatic incriease).
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Fear-inducing models made by epidemiologists are useful to govs wanted to implement controlling policies and have much of the populace not just go along with them but demand them.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Ferguson logic: I've modelled that literally everyone is going to die of the virus, but on the positive side my modelling suggests infections should start to fall off at that point
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
That man is not a scientist
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
"They always are wrong, their estimates are always too high. The mistake is we listened this time."
@MLevitt_NP2013 explained here: https://www.mediatheque.lindau-nobel.org/videos/38691/corona-the-role-of-science-in-times-of-crisis/meeting-2020 … around 17th minute.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Before vaccination, erring on the pessimistic side was better than on the optimistic side. Arguably now the opposite is true (NHS backlog, economic necessity, social impact), and Prof Ferguson is wrong in the wrong direction.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
How about getting it right like some others have?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Evidently no consequences for Prof Neil Ferguson. He’s been making overly pessimistic predictions that have turned out to be completely wrong his entire career. The definition of failing upwards.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Has he actually been right about anything? I can't imagine a job in which I fail repeatedly, but I survive because my messaging is on point, except, of course, politics.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.