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fredbauerblog's profile
Fred Bauer
Fred Bauer
Fred Bauer
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@fredbauerblog

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Fred BauerVerified account

@fredbauerblog

Writing a book on liberty, community, and the good. @nro, @weeklystandard, @amconmag, @gbhnews, etc. Contact: fredbauerblog at gmail dot com

fredbauerblog.blogspot.com
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Joined May 2010

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    Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

    Two figures Senate Republicans might keep in mind when weighing the politics of voting to convict Trump: Jeff Sessions and Mitt Romney. One shows how little Trump repays past loyalty; the other hints that opposing Trump doesn't necessarily lead to political annihilation.

    10:34 AM - 11 Feb 2021
    • 25 Retweets
    • 108 Likes
    • saiful islam Craig steve fuller VforVendetta antigon Paul Kempf Parforthetrack Janieyaya, NIYY Director jeff lalloway
    24 replies 25 retweets 108 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Sessions was first senator to endorse Trump. In a White House torn by palace intrigue and dysfunction, he actually tried to implement Trump's campaign promises as AG. Sessions combination of governing experience and populist sympathies made him a rare asset for the White House.

        4 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        And how did Trump repay Sessions? He launched a brutal campaign of public denigration and did all he could to block him from regaining his old Senate seat. The instant Trump posed a loyalty test Sessions would not take, he turned savagely against him.

        3 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Even if a Senate Republican votes to acquit Trump, the Donald could swing against him at any minute. In the 2016 primary, he attacked Ted Cruz (who went out of his way to court Trump) as harshly as he did Jeb Bush.

        1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        (Reminder: The effort to try to be the heir to Trump in 2024 only is plausible if Trump decides that he and his family should exit the presidential politics business. And we don't know he's made that decision.)

        1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Romney stood alone to vote to convict Trump in the 2020 impeachment. And it didn't make him a political pariah. He was a major player in COVID relief. He can influence the legislative conversation. He still has standing within the GOP caucus.

        2 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Romney's polling among Utah Republicans might not be super-great at the moment, but he still has close to 4 years until he's up for reelection. That's a long time in politics. Compare GOP in 2014 to 2018.

        2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Keep in mind that Trump's ability to intervene in primary elections or "drive" a candidate out of GOP is often grossly exaggerated. He couldn't pull Luther Strange over the finish line. He attacked Rep. Thomas Massie brutally--and Massie won his primary by only 60 points!

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Many of the candidates Trump supposedly "destroyed" were already vulnerable. Jeff Flake had weak approval ratings in AZ long before his battles with Trump.

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Some worry that Trump might try to bolt and forge a 3rd party if Republicans do convict him and bar him from office. But he could still use the threat of a 3rd-party splinter movement if GOP doesn't give him the nomination in 2024.

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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      11. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Republicans looking to make a serious bid for the presidency in 2024 might take a lesson from Trump in 2016: to win the big game, you have to forge your own brand and your own coalition.

        1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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      12. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        And continually bending the knee to Trump's loyalty tests makes it much harder for other Republicans to create their own brands. (That's one of the reasons why Trump continually imposes them; they create the appearance of dominance.)

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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      13. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        That's another thing Romney has grasped: that you can oppose Trump on some issues (including big ones) without defining yourself merely as anti-Trump. Romney has a distinct political identity beyond his opposition to Trump.

        2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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      14. Fred Bauer‏Verified account @fredbauerblog Feb 11

        Also, if there is going to be a political battle with Trump, it's worth remembering that his record as president has many vulnerabilities that a "populist" alternative could challenge.

        0 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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      15. End of conversation

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