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frates's profile
frates
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frates
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@frates

Founder of Storyline Co-host @PolPerPodcast Host of Politics Inside Out on @sxmpotus Past lives: CNN, National Journal, Politico + newspapers

Washington, DC
TheStorylineCompany.com
Joined October 2008

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    1. Sam Rhem‏ @srhem Oct 26

      @frates Never been polled once in 40 years. Your dismissal of Beto’s chances are based on old methods. Can’t measure the youth enthusiasm out there. Beto’s rallies tell a different story. Political Persuasions Rocks, Subscribe People! @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA

      1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
    2. frates‏Verified account @frates Oct 26
      Replying to @srhem @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA

      Thanks Sam, but I'm not basing my analysis on "old methods." I'm looking at recent voter turnout. In '16, Trump beat Clinton by about 800k votes. During the primary in March, about 500k more Rs went to the polls than Ds. Could Ds overcome those margins? Sure. Is it likely? Nah.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Sam Rhem‏ @srhem Oct 26
      Replying to @frates @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA

      You’re discounting the enthusiasm factor along with and among new registrants. 2016 did you call it for Trump? Many polls/pollsters got that wrong (old methods) Surprise on the horizon!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      frates‏Verified account @frates Oct 26
      Replying to @srhem @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA

      Like I said, there could be a surprise, but it's unlikely. We heard the same talk of Dem "enthusiasm," which is impossible to measure, before the primaries. They were still outvoted.https://www.texastribune.org/2018/03/07/blue-wave-texas-republicans-outvoted-democrats-2018-primaries/ …

      12:54 PM - 26 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sam Rhem‏ @srhem Oct 26
          Replying to @frates @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA

          Polls don’t know how to capture this. Beto took off after the primaries.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-demand-from-texas-voters-in-the-era-of-trump-compassion/2018/08/30/f26cc678-a077-11e8-83d2-70203b8d7b44_story.html …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. frates‏Verified account @frates Oct 26
          Replying to @srhem @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA

          Those aren't poll numbers. They are voter turnout numbers, people who actually went to the polls and voted.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Sam Rhem‏ @srhem Oct 26
          Replying to @frates @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA

          Back in March. information environment has changed since then don’t you think? Different motivators have surfaced.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

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