@frates Never been polled once in 40 years. Your dismissal of Beto’s chances are based on old methods. Can’t measure the youth enthusiasm out there. Beto’s rallies tell a different story. Political Persuasions Rocks, Subscribe People! @PolPerPodcast @therealOMEARA
Thanks Sam, but I'm not basing my analysis on "old methods." I'm looking at recent voter turnout. In '16, Trump beat Clinton by about 800k votes. During the primary in March, about 500k more Rs went to the polls than Ds. Could Ds overcome those margins? Sure. Is it likely? Nah.
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You’re discounting the enthusiasm factor along with and among new registrants. 2016 did you call it for Trump? Many polls/pollsters got that wrong (old methods) Surprise on the horizon!
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Like I said, there could be a surprise, but it's unlikely. We heard the same talk of Dem "enthusiasm," which is impossible to measure, before the primaries. They were still outvoted.https://www.texastribune.org/2018/03/07/blue-wave-texas-republicans-outvoted-democrats-2018-primaries/ …
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Polls don’t know how to capture this. Beto took off after the primaries.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-demand-from-texas-voters-in-the-era-of-trump-compassion/2018/08/30/f26cc678-a077-11e8-83d2-70203b8d7b44_story.html …
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Those aren't poll numbers. They are voter turnout numbers, people who actually went to the polls and voted.
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Back in March. information environment has changed since then don’t you think? Different motivators have surfaced.
End of conversation
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