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I've written on it before (here just two weeks ago https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/12/politics/bernie-sanders-2020-election-poll-of-the-week/index.html …) and tweeted about... but I want to reemphasize that the Sanders path is increasingly clear to me.
What have we seen? Well our CNN/DMR Iowa poll showed him at 20%. (Others were close enough). But what is key there is the trendline. We've seen it across the board too... Jump next to NH... Look at this very high quality poll showing him gaining & aheadhttps://www.wbur.org/news/2020/01/23/new-hampshire-bernie-sanders-lead-january …
Nationally, what have we seen? Again, Sanders at his highest point in the polling averages since his post-announcement bump... Oh and a number of national polls show him holding his own with nonwhite and yes even black voters.
I think the possibility of Sanders has certainly been acknowledged by most... but what I also think is true is that people may acknowledge it in their heads but not in their guts. They certainly should if they haven't. It's not just a possibility. It's a distinct possibility.
Sanders, imo, is underestimated as a general election threat. But I also think a president sanders would struggle mightily to get anything meaningful passed with congress. Medicare for all will never sniff passage.
Everyone will struggle. He’s the only one with an express and realistic theory of change, which is the dual power hypothesis that does not involve negotiating with bad faith actors, but instead exerting the power of the people and a movement on those actors to force change.
And then go on to lose 45 states
How do you square this with him tying in Iowa and dominating in New Hampshire in 2016 and then falling utterly apart as soon as black and brown people could vote for him?
He's well positioned in Nevada and routinely wins among Latino voters in the polls. In PBS/Marist and the latest CNN national poll, he was ahead of all other candidates among people of color.
There is no chance Perez, Obama and the DNC allow him to be the nominee. Even if he wins the most delegates, they will ensure he isn’t the nominee.
Then they will be committing political suicide and handing control of the entire government over to the GOP for the foreseeable future.
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