Ben Steenhuisen

@followNoxville

Dota Stats Fiend - | ❤ esports, MtG, tournament formats, integrity | dabbler | Bookings: | 📧 bensteenhuisen@gmail.com

Berlin, Germany
datdota.com
Joined July 2010
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Apr 11

    A bookmarkable link to the spreadsheet where tournament error rates and top 4 rates are stored.

    1 retweet 2 likes
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  2. 17 hours ago

    ayyy lmao

    1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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  3. 20 hours ago

    Now that Epicenter groups are over, an update to the TI8 projections (and shifts since before).

    2 retweets 23 likes
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  4. May 2

    The funniest interaction is that FTM's projected points has increased (15 -> 58), but since LGD has done well - their (FTM's) projected chance of getting a direct invite has decreased to just 1 in 500. Navi also dropped to 0.91% from 1.04%.

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  5. May 2

    Statistically the biggest loser of the groupstage is Thunder. Their chance of getting a TI8 direct invite has dropped by 2.8% (down to 36.95%), mostly because LGD has done so well (+3.78%). Newbee has also dropped 0.91%.

    1 reply 5 likes
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  6. May 2

    I guess one could say that VP are supporting Secret here to win 2-0; but that's just way less likely than a 2-1 one way or the other. OG are basically supporting whoever wins game #1.

    1 reply 1 like
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  7. May 2

    Now it's just 4 permutations left as VP need a game to lock 1st. OG supporting VP here.

    4 replies 16 likes
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  8. May 2

    - NaVi out. - Pain locked @ #4. - Secret need to 2-0 to come 1st, 2-1 to come 2nd.

    4 replies 1 retweet 58 likes
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  9. May 2

    . fans should be supporting here - they need pain to win and to beat VP 2-0 to come 1st overall. fans should be supporting - only way they can come 1st in the group (and will avoid a possibility of coming 3rd).

    1 reply 6 likes
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  10. May 2

    Did wrong priority for Tiebreaker #4, affects 2 of the cases (Secret coming 1st). Thanks for pointing it out.

    1 reply 5 likes
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  11. May 2

    For what it's worth, I think head-to-head is way way inferior to Neustadtl score as a primary tiebreaker!

    3 replies 6 likes
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  12. May 2

    Minor issue with OG / NaVi h2h, fixed now (and redd'd out the impossible permutations).

    2 replies 10 likes
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  13. May 2

    Believe these are the 16 remaining outcomes for Group B. I'll red-out and reply with the possibilities as results stream in. The blue cases are quite difficult to work out (simple recursion doesn't necessarily work :D)

    2 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
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  14. May 2

    Based on some basic calculations: need to win this match against to guarantee playoffs. If they lose - they're out.

    2 replies 9 likes
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  15. May 2

    UK visa acquired ☑ Passport back in time for Thailand ☑ Epicenter Hype ☑ Mox Opals ordered ☑ playing 2-3 meaningless games and can pick Bristleback, Broodmother, Meepo, Templar Assassin, Underlord ☑

    2 replies 2 retweets 37 likes
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  16. May 1

    Current worksheet on Group B tiebreakers. Assuming that partially resolved tiebreakers restart the process (i.e if head-to-head among 4 tied teams splits the 4 teams into 2 with 2-1 and 2 with 1-2 then you do h2h between the 2-1's to determine 1st of the tied teams).

    8 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
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  17. May 1

    Just filled in a takedown request to a Chinese site (Sohu) for translating (copying) an article I wrote without permission. Let's see how this works out. (I used Google translate though so odds are they can't understand what I wrote).

    5 replies 14 likes
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  18. May 1

    Reminder about Epicenter tiebreakers: 1. Head to Head among tied teams. 2. Total Groupstage wins - losses (game difference) 3. Game difference in matches between tied teams 4. Results against teams from top down (unsure if this is result only or includes game score).

    3 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
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  19. May 1

    (they can be knocked out, it'd require Newbee going 2-0/2-0 and NaVi losing to Pain and VP 2-0'ing Secret

    3 replies 1 like
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  20. May 1

    With their win over , it seems like are on a trajectory to come 3rd/4th in their group. For them to make top 2 it'd mean VP and NaVi need to lose all their remaining matches.

    1 reply 5 likes
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  21. Apr 29

    Missing out on some Epicenter groupstage games and enjoying some Magic in the park instead. @…

    2 replies 4 likes
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