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A bookmarkable link to the spreadsheet where tournament error rates and top 4 rates are stored.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6Ku0WRzsiUwVALqhVJN4rzsyhrVmlzloPsjVC3PvjY …
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The last time i tried to outdrink russians (mostly PGG though), I ended up tackling Nahaz who'd just arrived after a 18 hour plane ride and was enjoying his first beer. Very much grey goose was consumed that night. Was such a fantastic event.https://twitter.com/keepingitKyle/status/993438330334433280 …
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Based on 100k tournament simulations using Glicko 2 ratings,
@LGDgaming directly qualified for TI8 every time after their@epicentergg victory. - will@virtuspro break 10k points? - how important is GESC for@EvilGeniuses? - Supermajor madness upsets yet to happen?#dotadpcpic.twitter.com/VT9NqQ30gK
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Bet365 odds for 'lgd to win the international 2018' went from 9.0 to 8.0 in the last 90 minutes.
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Although we are 7000km away, we loving the epicentergg finals. https://www.instagram.com/p/BicJ6zGADsL/?utm_source=twitter …
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Seems weird to me that the Lower Bracket Round 3 is played before the Upper Bracket Finals. LB team is gonna play 2 matches in a row, and it'd be easy to avoid this (just playing the UB Finals first).
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ayyy lmao
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Now that Epicenter groups are over, an update to the TI8 projections (and shifts since before).pic.twitter.com/V7Cod6azyR
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The funniest interaction is that FTM's projected points has increased (15 -> 58), but since LGD has done well - their (FTM's) projected chance of getting a direct invite has decreased to just 1 in 500. Navi also dropped to 0.91% from 1.04%.
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Statistically the biggest loser of the
@epicentergg groupstage is@Team_VGJ Thunder. Their chance of getting a TI8 direct invite has dropped by 2.8% (down to 36.95%), mostly because LGD has done so well (+3.78%). Newbee has also dropped 0.91%.Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
I guess one could say that VP are supporting Secret here to win 2-0; but that's just way less likely than a 2-1 one way or the other. OG are basically supporting whoever wins game #1.
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Now it's just 4 permutations left as VP need a game to lock 1st. OG supporting VP here.pic.twitter.com/X2a20rLyh8
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- NaVi out. - Pain locked @ #4. - Secret need to 2-0 to come 1st, 2-1 to come 2nd.pic.twitter.com/cPmhkbeHkv
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@teamsecret fans should be supporting@paiNGamingBR here - they need pain to win and to beat VP 2-0 to come 1st overall.@OGesports fans should be supporting@natusvincere - only way they can come 1st in the group (and will avoid a possibility of coming 3rd).Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Did wrong priority for Tiebreaker #4, affects 2 of the cases (Secret coming 1st). Thanks
@OmegamanDota for pointing it out.pic.twitter.com/1M82cGDbwY
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For what it's worth, I think head-to-head is way way inferior to Neustadtl score as a primary tiebreaker!
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Minor issue with OG / NaVi h2h, fixed now (and redd'd out the impossible permutations).pic.twitter.com/4twksg091N
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Believe these are the 16 remaining outcomes for Group B. I'll red-out and reply with the possibilities as results stream in. The blue cases are quite difficult to work out (simple recursion doesn't necessarily work :D)pic.twitter.com/mEUsrSWAFN
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Based on some basic calculations:
@natusvincere need to win this match against@paiNGamingBR to guarantee playoffs. If they lose - they're out.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
UK visa acquired
Passport back in time for @GESChampionship Thailand
Epicenter Hype
Mox Opals ordered
@LiquidKuroKy playing 2-3 meaningless games and can pick Bristleback, Broodmother, Meepo, Templar Assassin, Underlord
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Current worksheet on Group B tiebreakers. Assuming that partially resolved tiebreakers restart the process (i.e if head-to-head among 4 tied teams splits the 4 teams into 2 with 2-1 and 2 with 1-2 then you do h2h between the 2-1's to determine 1st of the tied teams).pic.twitter.com/iqQ0A0AkCg
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