Ben Steenhuisen

@followNoxville

Dota Stats Fiend - | ❤ esports, MtG, tournament formats, integrity | dabbler | Bookings: | 📧 bensteenhuisen@gmail.com

Berlin, Germany
datdota.com
Joined July 2010
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Apr 11

    A bookmarkable link to the spreadsheet where tournament error rates and top 4 rates are stored.

    1 retweet 2 likes
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  2. 17 hours ago

    The last time i tried to outdrink russians (mostly PGG though), I ended up tackling Nahaz who'd just arrived after a 18 hour plane ride and was enjoying his first beer. Very much grey goose was consumed that night. Was such a fantastic event.

    New to esports? The rules: 2. Don't be a douchecanoe 3. Never try to outdrink Russians
    2 replies 19 likes
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  3. May 6

    Based on 100k tournament simulations using Glicko 2 ratings, directly qualified for TI8 every time after their victory. - will break 10k points? - how important is GESC for ? - Supermajor madness upsets yet to happen?

    1 reply 3 retweets 22 likes
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  4. May 6

    Bet365 odds for 'lgd to win the international 2018' went from 9.0 to 8.0 in the last 90 minutes.

    2 replies 12 likes
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  5. May 6

    Although we are 7000km away, we loving the epicentergg finals.

    1 retweet 21 likes
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  6. May 4

    Seems weird to me that the Lower Bracket Round 3 is played before the Upper Bracket Finals. LB team is gonna play 2 matches in a row, and it'd be easy to avoid this (just playing the UB Finals first).

    4 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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  7. May 2

    ayyy lmao

    1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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  8. May 2

    Now that Epicenter groups are over, an update to the TI8 projections (and shifts since before).

    2 retweets 23 likes
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  9. May 2

    The funniest interaction is that FTM's projected points has increased (15 -> 58), but since LGD has done well - their (FTM's) projected chance of getting a direct invite has decreased to just 1 in 500. Navi also dropped to 0.91% from 1.04%.

    1 like
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  10. May 2

    Statistically the biggest loser of the groupstage is Thunder. Their chance of getting a TI8 direct invite has dropped by 2.8% (down to 36.95%), mostly because LGD has done so well (+3.78%). Newbee has also dropped 0.91%.

    1 reply 5 likes
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  11. May 2

    I guess one could say that VP are supporting Secret here to win 2-0; but that's just way less likely than a 2-1 one way or the other. OG are basically supporting whoever wins game #1.

    1 reply 1 like
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  12. May 2

    Now it's just 4 permutations left as VP need a game to lock 1st. OG supporting VP here.

    4 replies 16 likes
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  13. May 2

    - NaVi out. - Pain locked @ #4. - Secret need to 2-0 to come 1st, 2-1 to come 2nd.

    4 replies 1 retweet 60 likes
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  14. May 2

    . fans should be supporting here - they need pain to win and to beat VP 2-0 to come 1st overall. fans should be supporting - only way they can come 1st in the group (and will avoid a possibility of coming 3rd).

    1 reply 6 likes
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  15. May 2

    Did wrong priority for Tiebreaker #4, affects 2 of the cases (Secret coming 1st). Thanks for pointing it out.

    1 reply 5 likes
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  16. May 2

    For what it's worth, I think head-to-head is way way inferior to Neustadtl score as a primary tiebreaker!

    3 replies 6 likes
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  17. May 2

    Minor issue with OG / NaVi h2h, fixed now (and redd'd out the impossible permutations).

    2 replies 10 likes
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  18. May 2

    Believe these are the 16 remaining outcomes for Group B. I'll red-out and reply with the possibilities as results stream in. The blue cases are quite difficult to work out (simple recursion doesn't necessarily work :D)

    2 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
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  19. May 2

    Based on some basic calculations: need to win this match against to guarantee playoffs. If they lose - they're out.

    2 replies 9 likes
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  20. May 2

    UK visa acquired ☑ Passport back in time for Thailand ☑ Epicenter Hype ☑ Mox Opals ordered ☑ playing 2-3 meaningless games and can pick Bristleback, Broodmother, Meepo, Templar Assassin, Underlord ☑

    2 replies 2 retweets 37 likes
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  21. May 1

    Current worksheet on Group B tiebreakers. Assuming that partially resolved tiebreakers restart the process (i.e if head-to-head among 4 tied teams splits the 4 teams into 2 with 2-1 and 2 with 1-2 then you do h2h between the 2-1's to determine 1st of the tied teams).

    8 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
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