The new @Davos Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some @superforecaster rigor. What's the implied probability of:
"More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)
@PTetlock @dgardner
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An excellent point. There should be a date. And a clear threshold to resolve the question.
@Davos didn't supply those kinds of details, so we just have to use our best judgment given the context. It'd be great if the experts there provided needed specificity and we could relaunchHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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The claim is sourced to a Guardian piece. But what WEF repeats is the Guardian commentary. What Munich Re said (after some “if” and “might”) is that “some people on low and average incomes in some regions will no longer be able to afford insurance” for certain extreme weather.pic.twitter.com/ldxpfuafzH
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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