Dr Emma HodcroftKonto zweryfikowane

In short: numbers matter. The number of people with the new variant in continental Europe is likely still small: with testing, tracing, identification & restrictions, we might be able to prevent them from passing the virus on. That's easier with 10 people than 1000. 2/10

However, border closures make the most sense when coupled with fast action *inside* countries as well. Even a few cases can become a few thousand quickly, if there's nothing to stop them. So as well as border controls, countries need to be stepping up measures within. 3/10

Should bans have happened now, when we still have many unknowns about the new variant? This is a difficult balance. The last 2 days, Dr Michael Ryan speech at WHO has been in my head: “If you need to be right before you move, you will never win." 4/10https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1238504143104421888?lang=en …

Clearly, we need balance. Act too soon with too little info and you generate panic without evidence - damaging economy, livelihoods & trust. But wait too long, & you could miss a vital window when we have the chance to have the most effective response. 5/10

What should we be doing in the meantime? Travel bans within Europe can't continue indefinitely. Countries with them should be using this time to act locally & make a plan. 6/10

Act: - Ramp up test & trace - Special attention to areas with high UK travel/tourism - Develop targeted PCR to initially detect currently present cases quickly - Ramp up sequencing to confirm new variant cases, see how they're linked, & monitor for other variants too 7/10

Plan: how to handle traffic from UK? Some options: - Restrict travel allowed - Quarantine (remember, may not work in practice as well as hoped!) - Test all arrivals from some areas (but remember false negatives in early infection & need way to tell if new variant or not) 8/10

2 things will help detecting the variant in other countries: - PCR developed to pick up the variant specifically could allow high-throughput testing - likely need sequence confirmation initially - Ramp up sequencing to detect reliably & to monitor other & emerging variants 9/10

We have unfortunately had a 'curse' with #SARSCoV2: to wait & see if what happened elsewhere happens here too. The answer has been yes. I hope this time we can break this curse with caution & coordination! 10/10https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1296080785745862657 …