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Ferris Jabr
Ovjeren akaunt
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Ferris JabrOvjeren akaunt

@ferrisjabr

science writer ✵ contributing writer @NYTmag and @sciam ✵ writing a book about the coevolution of Earth and life for @RandomHouse ✵ surname rhymes with neighbor

Portland, OR
ferrisjabr.com
Vrijeme pridruživanja: lipanj 2009.

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    1. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      Ferris Jabr je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ce

      The viral thread quoted below is missing essential context and contains numerous errors. It does not reflect the latest evidence. #2019nCoV Here is a new thread with the facts: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905 …

      Ferris Jabr je dodan/na,

      Tweet je nedostupan.
      4.493 proslijeđena tweeta 7.307 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    2. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV

      5 replies 120 proslijeđenih tweetova 659 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    3. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      Ferris Jabr je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceJonRead

      The claim that the new coronavirus has an R0 of 3.8 is based on this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 … The authors of that paper emphasize the high degree of uncertainty and have already downgraded their estimate to an R0 of 2.5https://twitter.com/JonRead15/status/1220749549318430721 …

      Ferris Jabr je dodan/na,

      JonRead @JonRead15
      With lots of uncertainty in both case data and model uncertainty, R0 estimates will be changing rapidly. Important to update and monitor. We've updated our estimates with case data through 22 Jan. New estimated R0 of 2.5 95% CI 2.4, 2.6. Paper to be updated asap. #coronvirus
      13 replies 250 proslijeđenih tweetova 967 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      The claim that "we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record. Here is some context w/ a range of R0s:pic.twitter.com/mESegkytXr

      23:03 - 24. sij 2020.
      • 1.203 proslijeđena tweeta
      • 2.334 oznake „sviđa mi se”
      • matt swenson Daniel Vena Chris Valentine HKxEva Cue Zero Thilagavathy S Argento De La Grieta marimo Elza ⛅️
      48 replies 1.203 proslijeđena tweeta 2.334 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
        1. Novi razgovor
        2. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Moreover, R0 is not the only statistic that matters. Some diseases are extremely infectious but not very lethal; others are the inverse. Infectiousness can change dramatically depending on the population in question and circumstances. #2019nCoV

          13 replies 180 proslijeđenih tweetova 929 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        3. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          It's estimated, for example, that control measures reduced the R0 of SARS from ~2.9 to 0.4. (This might be the source of the erroneously cited "modest" 0.49 "viral attack rate" for SARS in the viral thread) Reference: https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf …

          9 replies 117 proslijeđenih tweetova 664 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        4. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          None of this is to belittle what is happening. The outbreak in China is a genuine public health emergency. But the essential data are still being collected and assessed. Sweeping and alarmist claims about unprecedented global threat are neither warranted nor helpful. #2019nCoV

          500 proslijeđenih tweetova 2.253 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        5. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Following numerous critiques, the most inaccurate tweet in the original viral thread disappeared/was probably deleted without explanation or follow-up correction. For transparency and posterity, this is what it looked like. The info in the pictured tweet is unequivocally wrongpic.twitter.com/MgWb6CnCPd

          9 replies 91 proslijeđeni tweet 460 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        6. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Some people have asked why they should believe me rather than a Harvard epidemiologist. This is not a matter of belief, nor pedigree. This is about facts, evidence, due diligence. I have presented the facts and their sources so you can examine them for yourself.

          18 replies 89 proslijeđenih tweetova 809 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        7. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          I'd like to thank everyone who has been sharing my thread. You are helping to combat misinformation and alarmism. Some people think it is futile to try, but you are proving them wrong. Critical thinking is a skill—a muscle. We have a collective responsibility to exercise it.

          5 replies 103 proslijeđena tweeta 727 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        8. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 25. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Here is one of the latest analyses of the new coronavirus, with an estimated R0 of 2.6 Remember, though: R0 is just one factor. It's still early, data are still coming in, and all the statistics are likely to keep changing https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ …

          26 replies 154 proslijeđena tweeta 539 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        9. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 26. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Ferris Jabr je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceDr. Maia Majumder

          https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1221202356035112961 …

          Ferris Jabr je dodan/na,

          Dr. Maia MajumderOvjeren akaunt @maiamajumder
          On #nCoV2019 transmissibility estimates: ultimately, R_0 is about *potential* transmission. R_0 estimates for #SARS are 2 to 5, whereas they’re only about 1.3 on average for seasonal #flu. The latter causes millions of cases a year whereas the former didn’t even cause 10K. 1/2
          Prikaži ovu nit
          1 reply 14 proslijeđenih tweetova 88 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        10. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 26. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Ferris Jabr je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/cePeople's Daily, China

          Some of the latest numbers according to People's Daily, Chinahttps://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1221237953357340672 …

          Ferris Jabr je dodan/na,

          People's Daily, ChinaOvjeren akaunt @PDChina
          Chinese health authorities announced Sunday that 1,975 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), including 324 in critical conditions and 56 deaths, had been reported in the country by the end of Saturday. pic.twitter.com/eL4GPDoD3l
          Prikaži ovu nit
          6 replies 14 proslijeđenih tweetova 84 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        11. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 26. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          This is a great resource: an interactive map of confirmed novel coronavirus infections and deaths around the world, frequently updated. Created by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering, John Hopkins University. Last update: 10PM EST Jan 25 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 …pic.twitter.com/TRyZ6tL0v7

          15 replies 223 proslijeđena tweeta 387 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        12. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 26. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          A lot of people sharing this study, which estimates an R0 of 3.3 - 5.47 for the new coronavirus This study was published on Jan 24. It doesn't use data beyond Jan 22. And it hasn't been peer-reviewed. It does not represent a definitive consensushttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1 …

          6 replies 21 proslijeđeni tweet 62 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        13. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 26. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Remember: the estimated R0 for SARS ranged from 2 to 5 depending on the context (https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf …). It's entirely possible the R0 for the new coronavirus will fall within or close to that range (they are related viruses). But R0 is not the only factor to consider

          7 proslijeđenih tweetova 32 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        14. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 26. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Incoming reports suggest the new coronavirus has a variable incubation period (1 to 14 days) & may be contagious pre-symptoms. That could potentially make it harder to contain than SARS. But we simply don't yet have enough data to accurately pin down the R0 or fatality rate.

          19 proslijeđenih tweetova 63 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        15. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 26. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Here are some especially good recent reports: 1) Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/china-scrambles-to-contain-strengthening-virus-idUSKBN1ZP02B … 2) Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-latest-updates/2020/01/26/4603266c-3fa8-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html … 3) STAT News https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/ … 4) Foreign Policyhttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/how-to-tell-whats-really-happening-with-the-wuhan-virus/ …

          35 proslijeđenih tweetova 81 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        16. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 27. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          New analysis, published Jan 26, reports avg incubation of 4.8 days and R0 of 2.9, which is consistent with earlier estimates of 2.6. Dr. @mugecevik says this is "the first detailed epidemic curve." Still working with early data, thoughhttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1 …

          13 proslijeđenih tweetova 36 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        17. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 27. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          From same study: "2019-nCoV may have higher pandemic risk than SARS...implemented public-health efforts have significantly decreased pandemic risk....However, more rigorous control and prevention strategies and measures [needed] to contain further spread"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1 …

          1 reply 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 19 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        18. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 28. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Here are two important examples of the many data collection and communication challenges that arise in the early stages of a crisis, why it's so important to have reliable information before making dramatic pronouncements, and why context and level of uncertainty are crucial:

          1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 16 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        19. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 28. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Health minister Ma Xiaowei said the new coronavirus is contagious pre-symptoms; didn't explain further. This 1 piece of info could make a huge diff in planning & outcomes. But the CDC's Nancy Messonnier & other experts point out that direct evidence is lacking. Not yet certain.

          4 proslijeđena tweeta 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        20. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 28. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Ferris Jabr je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceGray Connolly

          Similarly, the confirmed number of cases globally is about 3,000 right now (vast majority in China). Expert estimates of additional cases in China range from an extra 1,000 to *hundreds of thousands* For ex see: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other … &https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1221927072412487681 …

          Ferris Jabr je dodan/na,

          Gray Connolly @GrayConnolly
          "At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU) estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000." #Coronavirus http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/experts-ncov-spread-chinas-cities-could-trigger-global-epidemic …
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          1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        21. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 28. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Be advised: Social media has been flooded with misinformation about the coronavirus, including old, unrelated, & possibly fake videos. Many opportunists are capitalizing on this crisis for financial & political gain. Always investigate credibility:https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/coronavirus-disinformation-spread …

          26 proslijeđenih tweetova 51 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        22. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 28. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          I've started a Public List of accounts to follow for updates on the new coronavirus: a mix of scientists, journalists, non-profits, and government agencies. I'll update as the situation develops. You can find it under my profile or subscribe via this link https://twitter.com/i/lists/1221498969697574913 …

          12 replies 45 proslijeđenih tweetova 108 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        23. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 29. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Key passage from @DavidQuammen's recent NYT Op-Ed on the new coronavirus https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-china.html …pic.twitter.com/EAWLhEFj25

          1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        24. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 29. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          The recent Twitter discourse about R0, science communication, and viral outbreaks—in multiple senses of the phrase—has inspired two new pieces in The Atlantic: 1) @edyong209 offers a useful crash course on what R0 does and does not meanhttps://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/ …

          1 reply 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 23 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        25. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 29. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          2) @alexismadrigal examines how misinformation spreads, "the scope and speed by which social-media platforms enable this to happen—and the strangeness of the information networks that are formed in crisis"https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/ …

          5 replies 15 proslijeđenih tweetova 31 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        26. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 29. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          New preliminary analysis finds an R0 of 2.24 - 3.58 for the new coronavirus, consistent with the majority of estimates so farhttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v2 …

          4 proslijeđena tweeta 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        27. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 29. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Ferris Jabr je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceHelen Branswell

          A thread of #nCoV2019 #coronavirus updates rolling in from @HelenBranswell: -China's response to outbreak "massive" -Transmission outside Hubei less intense so far -Tomorrow, WHO will reconsider declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concernhttps://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1222552322955411457 …

          Ferris Jabr je dodan/na,

          Helen BranswellOvjeren akaunt @HelenBranswell
          1. @WHO #nCoV2019 update: @DrMikeRyan says the Chinese response to the outbreak is at a scale he's never seen before. "The challenge is great but the response has been massive." Ryan and @DrTedros were in China earlier this week.
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          1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        28. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 29. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Ferris Jabr je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceTedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

          Interesting comment from @DrTedros via @HelenBranswell: "The current situation on PHEICS is Yes or No — "Green or Red." He thinks there should be a yellow status — a warning, but not yet a PHEIC — should be added"https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1222543539587964930 …

          Ferris Jabr je dodan/na,

          Tedros Adhanom GhebreyesusOvjeren akaunt @DrTedros
          I have decided to reconvene the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on the new #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) tomorrow to advise me on whether the current outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. pic.twitter.com/993YBQ6hol
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          1 reply 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        29. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 31. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Today's Updates Part I: -Nearly 10,000 cases worldwide (vast majority in China); more than 200 deaths (all in China) -WHO declares global health emergency (note: not synonymous with global pandemic) -U.S. State Department advises against travel to China #nCoV2019 #coronavirus

          1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        30. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 31. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Today's Updates Part II: -Illinois reports first case of human-human transmission in U.S. -Increasing evidence of asymptomatic transmission, but not definitive -Latest R0 estimates between 2 - 4, consistent w/ most estimates so far & comparable to SARS #nCoV2019 #coronavirus

          3 proslijeđena tweeta 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        31. Ferris Jabr‏Ovjeren akaunt @ferrisjabr 4. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Updates: -Close to 21,000 cases globally (of which 20,000+ are in China) -427 deaths (425 in China, 1 in Hong Kong, 1 in Philippines) -So far no sustained outbreaks outside of China Latest summary table from WHO: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ … #nCoV2019 #coronaviruspic.twitter.com/MY7CMHvlkE

          6 replies 60 proslijeđenih tweetova 58 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        32. Još 2 druga odgovora

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