Seemed to me that for successful giant tech companies, the fundamental tech breakthroughs take place before the startup gets formed, then the seed funding is used to find product/market fit, then the big $ is used to scale. Is this naive? Are there historical counter-examples?
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Assuming all the $ gets spent, if they sell a $1000 device with a 10% net profit margin, then for investors to even *recoup* their money, Magic Leap will need to sell about 23M units -- nearly as many as the total number of XBox One units ever sold. A bold bet
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If you're expecting a 10x return (say, with 20% probability, so you make 2x if you place enough bets, which starts beating the SP500 over the same timescale), you'll need to create a bigger market than the global gaming console market. This is why I'm not in VC
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Reminds so much of General Magic. Remember? Cloak of mystery. The hype. Money sponge. The ‘too big to fail’ before they got started... emperor has no clothes. VR just sucks. A niche play in a few verticals. Even in entertainment it’s a feature not a product. Aaargh
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And it's not like it's totally new tech, hololens is a good comparable product. Maybe they do it better, maybe cheaper, but it doesn't look like a 60bn company
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The thing with valuations and money raised is that sometimes the strings attached make the reality very different from what is communicated. Illustrative example: "unico raises 1bn at 5bn valuation" could be the press release associated to the following specifics:
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"Vc pool gave 1bn to unico against 20% of outstanding shares + the instant repayment of .8bn in company debt to related investor pool + the agreement that none of the 0.2bn will be spent without approval + options on an extra 40% of shares should milestone x not be met by date y"
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knowing SV investors/startups, there probably isn't and it probably wont
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After all this time and money, it had better be good!
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