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Saying “Oh, this is BS and it won’t matter” is always a safe answer. Because, by default, most new tech will turn out being irrelevant. But having a high accuracy is irrelevant for investments. What matters is a high recall for the positive examples.
IMO investing success is about exploiting information asymmetry. A great investment is a long shot that few believe in but that turns out to be a hit. Following the herd is rarely a great investing strategy. Ignore the hype
In terms of “impact” one could argue that Blockchain and bitcoin has already had a huge economic and cultural impact (positive or negative), perhaps more so than AI. I think it’s past the question of whether it will matter or not. Q is whether it’ll stay.
I would love to see this conversation again today.
(1) Have to respectfully disagree here. Bet-sizing is an important skill here. "A long shot that turns out to be a hit" sounds like playing the lottery. Paying $1 for a 1/100 chance to win $101 is a great investment if you can afford to play multiple times.
(2) "Following the herd" or "trend following" can be a great investment strategy. There are quite a few successful trend following market wizards.
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