Which will happen first? Artificial cell-like tech or artificial brain-like tech? By cell-like tech, I mean self-manufacturing, self-maintaining macrorobots made of trillions of coordinated nanorobots.
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If you think AI must be an easy tech to develop because evolution came up with it first, have you considered that, today, we can't understand nor recreate pretty much any of what evolution has produced, including fairly "basic" systems (evolution-wise)?
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Hehehe This is a trick question...
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The belief that evolution created it all is just that, a belief, a superstition. It's a nerd religion. It makes the cognoscenti feel accepted by their peers. But the curse of dimensionality destroys it. One thing is certain: AGI will not come from such an easily fooled bunch.
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AGI will indeed come but it will come from the one place the cognoscenti suspect the least. And sooner than they think.
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Nor we understand fully much simpler things than the brain. Like the immune system.
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To be honest, it's not clear if it's really "simpler" in any real sense. It may well be, but we have no way to quantify the complexity or either system. Their complexity might also lie along axes that aren't comparable.
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AI? The Wright brothers believed heavier than air flight wouldn’t be possible for another 50 years, two years before they invented it. Another analogy was that many nuclear scientists didn’t believe a nuclear bomb was possible until news of it dropped. AI can go 0-120 in a flash.
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I think AI is easier because we can use external infrastructure and just focus on the cognitive parts, whereas you specified self-production for the cell-like stuff, meaning we have to start with what's convenient chemically.
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We can't even agree in an AI definition!
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Billions of years of chance and selection for largely unknown traits. Should be easy.
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... adding to that, evolution had quite some time to figure out how to do things!
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