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Innovation is an accretion process, where long-term, large-scale macro trends matter more than individual contributions. A consequence of this is that technological revolutions are predictable shortly before they happen, if you're listening carefully.
An interesting characteristic of important breakthroughs is that multiple people and groups tend to be working on them at the same time, independently. They're effectively running the very last step of a collective problem-solving algorithm that was nearing completion.
Absolutely, yet predicting the exact form of the breakthrough is not possible, so the implications of those details will always cause some interesting variability on projected future scenarios.
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