Technological progress is half solving technical puzzles, half telling ourselves stories about what the puzzles and their solutions mean and where they will lead us
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Some technologies are *mostly* made of stories. Like Bitcoin, which reads like a thriller novel. Following this line of reasoning, it's possible to predict which technologies will take off by looking at the quality of the surrounding storytelling
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Narrative and Numbers. Damodaran
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'marketing' is all
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1/2 Would you agree that such high quality storytelling corresponds to an overarching, global importance, thus indicative of said technology taking off? For instance, Bitcoin is at its core a story about the globalization of finance and a distrust for banks and governments.
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2/2 So perhaps what makes a story 'good' is that it stands to impact the most people in the biggest way? Rather than the literal discourse used to examine these technologies?
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The story telling part of bitcoin is ex post, largely to rationalize its success. The product part of bitcoin is a stroke of genius, by chance.
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Interesting insight. Neural Networks & Deep Learning also have a fascinating story line, with many ups & downs, dogged persistence by some key figures, timing & some luck, as described very well here http://bit.ly/2qGh1WN
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...and if that hypothesis is true then possibly one could build a deep learning model that analyzes the "quality" of the stories surrounding emerging technologies, to predict which ones will take off :-)
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