A voice of reason at the BigNeuro panel: "we are very very far from human-level AI... maybe decades or centuries" - Yoshua Bengio #NIPS2017
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We'll know it's getting closer when we start developing proper definitions of the goal and reasonable ways to model progress. Since we don't have that today, we know we're far, but we don't know anything more
In particular we don't know "how far". Like walking towards a place that's beyond the horizon line. We'll know we're getting close (and how close) only when it's in sight.
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I take it to mean even the experts have absolutely no idea how and when we "solve" human intelligence. We've seen this story so many times before.
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Absolutely agree we have no idea how far away.
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For example machine translation solution via seq2seq was surprisingly good (even though the exact architecture was probably first tried two decades ago) because of comp graph autodiff large parallel corpus deeper grasp of embedding etc
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