Maybe progress in Vision/NLP/etc is not due to neural nets, but rather due to the influx of smart researchers, lots of compute, and industry pushes. Focusing on a different paradigm (graphical models, evolution, ..) could’ve made the same amount, but different type, of progress.
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I agree that this kind of work makes up a large fraction of what’s currently being done DL (at least NLP from what I’ve seen). But there have also been a few real breakthroughs, though they may also have happened within a different paradigm, and without neural nets.
There are undoubtedly plenty of breakthroughs. But the signal/noise ratio is just not very good. I hope we'll do better as the field matures.
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My key issue with DL at the moment is that much of the sota results don't have much in the way of statistical validation. Results could just be sampling errors ...
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