As a society we are underestimating the speed and magnitude of change relative to electric cars, autonomous cars, and energy transition. At the same time, "futurists" are overestimating the speed of AI progress
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It's not that we are bad at forecasting -- it's that we are biased by our interests. Established companies and experts don't want disruption to happen to fast. Meanwhile, the success of a futurist is conditioned on dreaming up crazy science fiction...
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I think there's also a huge gap between seeing a prototype in academia and seeing a shipping, mass market product A good example is auto image captioning— first public demos were ~4 years ago, and it’s only recently making into mass market products
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Rockets to Martian cities: hard sci fi light fixing, invisibility ponchos, conscious machines, CRSPR: crazy science fiction
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3D printers, the web, gaming out-earns porn by a staggering margin, POTUS trolls heads of state, no engineers at Google can understand or explain their AIs self-invented language………… there is no such thing as crazy sci fi any longer, FC
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Do you consider Google as an established company ? cuz since they have Ray Kurzweil as a director of engineering, there might be a paradox here..
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The interests of companies and their employees are not necessarily the same. A conflict of interest is not a logical contradiction nor a paradox.
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But we are terrible at forecasting too. Nearly any history of tech forecasting is mostly terrible. We're very prone to assuming 97% solved implies 100% is not just possible but probable (Voice recognition, AI, etc.) even when history suggests that gap may be the hardest of all.
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Zeno's paradox is real with technology. Achilles keeps halving the distance between him and the tortoise, but there is always a smaller gap that remains. For some problems, the tortoise is at the outside edge of the universe. And the universe keeps expanding, as the mind expands!
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Agree. In addition to overestimating AI progress speed: - tech challenges are underestimated - non-tech challenges challenges are overlooked
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I studied a PhD with unrealistic expectations. I want to accelerate disruption (not slow it down nor dream), I'm not a company nor a futurist. Any advice is appreciated. Where to go? What to do/expect?
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