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As a society we are underestimating the speed and magnitude of change relative to electric cars, autonomous cars, and energy transition. At the same time, "futurists" are overestimating the speed of AI progress
It's not that we are bad at forecasting -- it's that we are biased by our interests. Established companies and experts don't want disruption to happen to fast. Meanwhile, the success of a futurist is conditioned on dreaming up crazy science fiction...
the main focus is at the peak of consumer attention for any given scale.
yet the ability of the machines to process unstructured data has become quite amazing lately, thus opening a wide range of applications which were not even feasible before...it's a revolution in itself, no overestimating there.
Or vice versa. Computing power has increased rapidly -- exponentially, while real manufacturing and battery development follows a gompertz curve.
I increasingly think image recognition should be on such a list
Over or under list?
it's more about perception regarding your AI remark there is still a lot of low hanging fruit, society sees this as rapid progress
Read Life 3.0
As futurist my feeling is that most people don't understand AI enough to make predictions in general, and it's less about speed and more about impact.
Some people still dream of machines able to emancipate from humans. I do. Huge impact, question: when?https://twitter.com/trylks/status/934166068825862144 …
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