Human-level AI is often forecast 20 years in the future. I think that's overly optimistic, by a large factor, and I am willing to bet on it
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I would bet money that in 20 years, technology will not be sufficient to build a robot with the level of sensorimotor control of a house cat
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Replying to @BradPorter_
Ok. How much? I'd say $1000. To be serious, we'd need detailed & factual winning conditions, too
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Replying to @fchollet
Sounds like the right ballpark. I like that longbet pays out to the winner’s charity. Curious your proposed concrete terms?
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Replying to @BradPorter_
Quick thoughts:https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wsZ8W5ti1vBnfe5HYv0kUiKxsioPH-Pska2zI_wCrl4/edit?usp=sharing …
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Replying to @fchollet
Here's a version of the test criteria that I believe focuses on the sensorimotor control aspects only.https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rQb9Flkt9En8rxu9s98hdwDS4XCRe7e9qzM_Ka4Itfo/edit?usp=sharing …
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Replying to @BradPorter_
V. reasonable, but I don't think the proposed tests really capture the goal. They're more narrow; passing them wouldn't require cat-level AI
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Replying to @fchollet @BradPorter_
Whatever practical test we have should emphasize generalization power, adaptability, not only agility & 3D navigation
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Ideally the tests could be run on actual cats too, so we can compare success rates and have a concrete "cat-level threshold" for the tests
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