I would bet money that in 20 years, technology will not be sufficient to build a robot with the level of sensorimotor control of a house cat
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Human-level AI is often forecast 20 years in the future. I think that's overly optimistic, by a large factor, and I am willing to bet on it
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And I say this while being deeply optimistic about the current progress and future prospects of AI. I think we're doing amazing
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Coincidentally, 20 years is the typical career span of a futurist.
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Dude you are on fire tonight!
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Separate timelines, imo. "Human level" cognition is a category, more than a measurement / quantum, no? We'd have to restrict some of the powers of AI to reach "human" level, in some base metrics. What AI might be in 20 years doesn't feel human, in my imagination.
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We could produce extra-dimensional AI if there was not such a deep set prejudice in the world of knowledge. http://thelenaghioparadox.blogspot.ca/2015/06/emerge-art-and-quest-to-create.html …pic.twitter.com/2heM6yCrHq
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It is optimistic, although it is also unpredictable. All that is needed is one breakthrough. Bigger question is, what is it useful for?
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Would you bet that we get AGI by 2050 as the well known poll says or do you think that's optimistic too?
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I'm more interested in using narrow AI to transform how we work and live, if that happens then I'm ok with AGI being 50+ years away
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It's been 20 years for the last 100 years...
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