In SciFi, two patterns are apparent: 1) authors only extrapolate from trends already present, and cannot foresee truly novel developments
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This also extends to hard SciFi set in the near future. The Mars trilogy, written in the 90s, predicted Mars colonization 9 years from now
This contradicts the Singularist postulate that we underestimate the speed of progress because it’s exponential -- we always overestimate it
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Perhaps, as per
@BillGates, we overestimate in the short term, and underestimate in the long termThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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We =! SciFi writers; they have bias to make things more interesting for current audience.
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Also many set AI in far future, Banks, Vinge, Gibson (IIRC), Watts
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You should write more (blog posts, articles, books maybe). Your view on the issue is quite refreshing.
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Rate of technical progress easier to predict were it not for the contradicting rate of social self-destruction ("making things great again")
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I always figured the time in which future-y sci-fi was set is always too soon for the development predicted just to keep things relatable
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Not as a clear-eyed prediction, but more so that the average reader can more easily imagine it as a possible future, owing to its nearness
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isn't there some argument that we kept up with sci-fi in times of war, and only struggle to do so in peace?
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I think we don't underestimate the speed of progress, but we underestimate the challenges ahead. Result: progress as logistic function.
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