In SciFi, two patterns are apparent: 1) authors only extrapolate from trends already present, and cannot foresee truly novel developments
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Asimov saw intelligent humanoids in the 2000s, Blade Runner is set in our time, 2001 is set in… 2001. There are countless examples
This also extends to hard SciFi set in the near future. The Mars trilogy, written in the 90s, predicted Mars colonization 9 years from now
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This contradicts the Singularist postulate that we underestimate the speed of progress because it’s exponential -- we always overestimate it
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Perhaps, as per
@BillGates, we overestimate in the short term, and underestimate in the long term
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Was KSR predicting, or was he making an aesthetic choice? He set New York 2140 in different timeframe/universe.
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