In SciFi, two patterns are apparent: 1) authors only extrapolate from trends already present, and cannot foresee truly novel developments
2) authors always overestimate the speed of progress, and the magnitude of technological & social change over time
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Asimov saw intelligent humanoids in the 2000s, Blade Runner is set in our time, 2001 is set in… 2001. There are countless examples
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This also extends to hard SciFi set in the near future. The Mars trilogy, written in the 90s, predicted Mars colonization 9 years from now
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3. others are suspiciously accurate about their forecasts on technology..i have
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I think taking setting as prediction is a mistake; authors often pick time frames for other reasons
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for example, Ramez Naam clarified he set his books much nearer than he thought the tech could happen to explore social issues
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Except for Dune
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I find most scifi underestimates advances in AI. Eg starships need expert pilots to dock them
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You often have expert pilots flying like it's 1960 on the same starship as sentient humanoid robots...
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Tesla Nikola 1926 on communicationshttps://twitter.com/galka_max/status/843537830349541382 …
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