Many people see a pattern in Brexit & Trump, believe that Le Pen is the continuation of that pattern. But History is made of random eventshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/856208581577854977 …
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These events could as well have turned out different. As for modern nation-scale polling, it is reliable --within its error margins.
I know experts are not a hot commodity these days, but data and statistics are still a thing.
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Historical patterns only exist as after-the-fact reinterpretation. Post-rationalization of a timeline that *could * have been very different
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Wasn't 538 "data" that predicted Clinton will win? W/out having silent Trump voter data? Agree with Randomness, curious to see end outcome.
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