These events could as well have turned out different. As for modern nation-scale polling, it is reliable --within its error margins.
Many people see a pattern in Brexit & Trump, believe that Le Pen is the continuation of that pattern. But History is made of random eventshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/856208581577854977 …
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I know experts are not a hot commodity these days, but data and statistics are still a thing.
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Information was not as freely accessible during most of history. In this age, perhaps temporally close events are more correlated?
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Tolstoy would have agreed.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/856228925285908480 …
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History is much more than random events. Cause and effect are critical ingredients in human events, and thus history.
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Le Pen will lose, sure. But the pattern certainly exists. The National Front winning > 1/5th of the vote would have been unthinkable.
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In countries the megaphone has been taken by a type of strident muscular, exclusive nationalism and intolerant attitudes that were fringe.
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Not random, but certainly subject to more factors than two foreign semi-related precedents.
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