note the data there is actually expert judgment v. not using expert judgment, diff. from expert/non-experthttp://aiimpacts.org/error-in-armstrong-and-sotala-2012/ …
Human-level AI has always been 25 years away. Prediction variance is increasing, though. http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/FAIC.pdf … (via @Miles_Brundage)pic.twitter.com/sEcyJ6yAsY
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yes, the data ends in 2012.
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yeah, and that data is better (all AI researchers) but still pretty varied. more recent surveys similar 2
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The truth is, since we cannot accurately define human intelligence, we can not make a decent prediction.
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The closer we get - the more we learn about our own abilities (the problem to be solved), so move goalposts again
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Like travelling to the moon - slow, but when you get close, the landing will seem to happen very quickly indeed.
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If you don't label your axis you're going to have a bad time :( https://xkcd.com/833/
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there are - Bostrom/Muller 2016, stuff at AI Impacts, some unpublished stuff, Metaculus is working on it..
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