The @538politics model looks terrible --if a probability is 70% now, it should never have been 90% 2 weeks ago when uncertainty was higher.
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Prob of 2 tails is 25%. I flip one coin and it's a tails. Prob of 2 tails is now 50%. Change of 25%, but correct.
In your example, the entropy of the distribution over all possible outcomes decreases with new info. With 538, entropy increases w new info.
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I don't know enough about 538's model to say if entropy has increased or decreased. But lower prob now != bad model.
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Entropy over y can increase if you observe a low probability x that has high entropy of p(y|x)
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